The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that cuts the rate at which new Bitcoin is created in half, approximately every four years. It is arguably the single most important event in Bitcoin's economic model. When Bitcoin was first launched in January 2009, miners received 50 BTC as a reward for each block they mined. After the first halving in 2012, this dropped to 25 BTC. After the second halving in 2016, it fell to 12.5 BTC. After the third halving in 2020, to 6.25 BTC. And after the most recent halving in April 2024, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC per block.
This halving schedule is hard-coded into Bitcoin's protocol and cannot be changed by anyone — not by developers, not by miners, not by governments. It is enforced by the consensus rules that every Bitcoin node on the network validates independently. This predictable, unchangeable monetary policy is what makes Bitcoin fundamentally different from fiat currencies, where central banks can (and do) increase the money supply at will.
The halving creates a supply shock: the daily production of new Bitcoin drops by 50% overnight, while demand continues at whatever level the market dictates. Basic economics tells us that when supply decreases and demand remains constant or increases, the price tends to rise. Historically, this is exactly what has happened after each halving, though with varying timelines and magnitudes.
Total halvings so far: 4 (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). Current block reward: 3.125 BTC per block (~450 BTC per day). Next halving: ~2028 (block 1,050,000). Future reward: 1.5625 BTC per block. Total supply cap: 21,000,000 BTC (never changes). BTC mined so far: ~19.8 million (~94.3%). Last Bitcoin mined: ~2140.
Bitcoin's blockchain operates on a simple principle: miners compete to solve a cryptographic puzzle, and the winner gets to add the next block of transactions to the blockchain and collect a reward. A new block is produced approximately every 10 minutes (Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment algorithm ensures this interval stays consistent regardless of how much mining power is on the network).
The block reward is the number of new Bitcoin that the miner of each block receives. This is how all new Bitcoin enters circulation. There are no other ways to create Bitcoin — no central bank printing, no treasury minting, no airdrops. Every Bitcoin that exists was produced through mining, and the rate of production follows the halving schedule.
Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the halving to occur every 210,000 blocks. At the target rate of one block every 10 minutes, 210,000 blocks take approximately four years to mine (210,000 blocks x 10 minutes = 2,100,000 minutes = approximately 3.99 years). The exact timing varies slightly because block production is probabilistic — blocks can be slightly faster or slower than the 10-minute target.
The block reward follows a simple formula: start at 50 BTC and halve it after every 210,000 blocks. This creates a geometric series:
| Halving | Block Range | Reward | BTC Created in Era |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-halving (Era 1) | 0 - 209,999 | 50 BTC | 10,500,000 |
| 1st Halving (Era 2) | 210,000 - 419,999 | 25 BTC | 5,250,000 |
| 2nd Halving (Era 3) | 420,000 - 629,999 | 12.5 BTC | 2,625,000 |
| 3rd Halving (Era 4) | 630,000 - 839,999 | 6.25 BTC | 1,312,500 |
| 4th Halving (Era 5) | 840,000 - 1,049,999 | 3.125 BTC | 656,250 |
| 5th Halving (Era 6) | 1,050,000 - 1,259,999 | 1.5625 BTC | 328,125 |
The sum of all eras converges to exactly 21,000,000 BTC. This elegant mathematical design ensures that Bitcoin has a fixed, known supply schedule that extends over a century. By approximately 2140, the block reward will be so small (less than 1 satoshi) that no new Bitcoin will be created, and miners will be sustained entirely by transaction fees.
Understanding the halving requires understanding Bitcoin's broader supply dynamics. The 21 million cap is not just an arbitrary number — it is the foundation of Bitcoin's value proposition as "digital gold" and a hedge against monetary inflation.
As of February 2026, approximately 19.8 million Bitcoin have been mined, representing about 94.3% of the total supply. Only 1.2 million BTC remain to be mined over the next century. However, a significant portion of the existing supply is permanently lost — estimates range from 3 to 4 million BTC belonging to wallets whose private keys have been lost, including approximately 1.1 million BTC in Satoshi Nakamoto's wallets that have never been moved.
This means the effective circulating supply is likely 16-17 million BTC, not 19.8 million. And with each halving, the rate of new supply entering the market decreases. Currently, about 450 BTC per day are mined (3.125 BTC per block x ~144 blocks per day). After the next halving, this will drop to about 225 BTC per day.
Bitcoin's annual inflation rate (the rate at which new BTC is created relative to the existing supply) currently sits at approximately 0.83% per year. After the next halving, it will drop to approximately 0.42%. For comparison, gold's annual supply increase is about 1.5-2%, and the US dollar money supply has expanded at rates ranging from 5-25% per year in recent decades. Bitcoin's inflation rate is already lower than gold's, making it one of the hardest monetary assets ever created.
Bitcoin: 21 million maximum supply, ~0.83% current inflation, decreasing to 0% by 2140. Gold: Unknown total supply, ~1.5-2% annual supply increase from mining, no hard cap. US Dollar: No supply cap, ~5-8% annual increase in recent years, theoretically unlimited. Bitcoin is the only major monetary asset with a mathematically guaranteed fixed supply cap and a decreasing inflation rate.
The first halving reduced the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $12. The Bitcoin network was still in its infancy, with a market cap under $150 million. Mining was dominated by GPUs, and the first ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) miners were just beginning to appear. The halving received minimal mainstream attention.
The second halving reduced the reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin's price was approximately $650 at the time of the halving. The crypto ecosystem had matured significantly: multiple exchanges operated globally, venture capital was flowing into Bitcoin startups, and the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" was taking hold. The Ethereum network had launched the previous year, expanding the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The third halving reduced the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin's price was approximately $8,600. This halving occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, just weeks after the market crash of March 2020 (where Bitcoin briefly fell below $5,000). Institutional adoption was beginning, with companies like MicroStrategy and Square making significant Bitcoin purchases. The DeFi summer of 2020 was starting on Ethereum.
The most recent halving reduced the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin's price was approximately $64,000. This halving was notable for several reasons: it coincided with the launch of the Runes protocol (bringing fungible tokens to Bitcoin), it occurred shortly after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (January 2024), and it happened during a period of significant institutional adoption. The halving block itself was one of the most expensive ever mined, as participants competed to inscribe Ordinals and etch Runes in the first post-halving block.
Every Bitcoin halving has been followed by a significant price increase, though with different magnitudes and timelines. Here is the data:
| Halving | Price at Halving | Peak After | Time to Peak | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st (Nov 2012) | ~$12 | ~$1,150 (Nov 2013) | ~12 months | ~9,500% |
| 2nd (Jul 2016) | ~$650 | ~$19,800 (Dec 2017) | ~17 months | ~2,950% |
| 3rd (May 2020) | ~$8,600 | ~$69,000 (Nov 2021) | ~18 months | ~700% |
| 4th (Apr 2024) | ~$64,000 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
A clear pattern emerges: each halving cycle produces large returns, but the percentage gains decrease with each cycle. The first post-halving cycle saw a 9,500% return. The second saw 2,950%. The third saw 700%. This diminishing return pattern makes sense: as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows larger, it takes proportionally more capital to move the price by the same percentage.
However, even "diminished" returns from halvings are enormous compared to traditional investments. A 700% return (the third cycle) on a $10,000 investment would yield $70,000. Even if the fourth cycle produces a "modest" 200-400% return from its halving price, that would represent substantial gains.
Based on historical patterns, the halving cycle tends to follow this rough timeline:
The fourth Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024 was unique in several ways that distinguished it from previous halvings.
For the first time, a halving occurred with regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs actively buying BTC in the market. The ETFs approved in January 2024 (BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and others) were accumulating Bitcoin at rates that sometimes exceeded daily mining production. This created an unprecedented demand-side dynamic alongside the supply-side reduction of the halving.
Casey Rodarmor strategically launched the Runes protocol at block 840,000 — the exact halving block. This led to intense competition among developers to etch runes and inscribe ordinals in the first post-halving block, driving the first few blocks' transaction fees to extraordinary levels. Some miners earned more from transaction fees in the halving block than from the block reward itself. Tokens like SPUNK*BET were etched during this period, and platforms like SPUNK.BET built entire gaming ecosystems around these Runes tokens.
The 2024 halving forced significant consolidation in the mining industry. With the block reward dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, miners with older, less efficient hardware saw their profit margins evaporate. Several smaller mining operations shut down or were acquired by larger companies. The surviving miners invested heavily in next-generation ASIC hardware, renewable energy sources, and operational efficiency to remain profitable at the reduced reward level.
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Claim Free SPUNK NowThe fifth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur at block 1,050,000, estimated around March-April 2028. The block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block — approximately 225 BTC per day, or about $22.5 million at $100,000 per BTC.
Several structural changes in the Bitcoin market suggest the next halving could play out differently from previous cycles:
Predicting Bitcoin's price is notoriously difficult, and anyone claiming certainty should be viewed with skepticism. However, the structural analysis suggests:
Miners are the most directly affected participants when a halving occurs. Their revenue from the block reward literally cuts in half overnight, while their costs (electricity, hardware, facilities) remain the same.
A miner is profitable when: (Block reward x BTC price) + Transaction fees > Electricity costs + Hardware costs + Operating costs. When the block reward halves, the left side of this equation drops significantly. Miners must either: have the BTC price increase enough to compensate, reduce their costs through more efficient hardware or cheaper electricity, or increase transaction fee revenue.
After each halving, a predictable pattern occurs:
As block rewards decrease with each halving, Bitcoin's security model must eventually transition from being subsidized by new issuance (block rewards) to being funded by transaction fees. The growth of Ordinals inscriptions, Runes tokens, and other Bitcoin-native protocols is accelerating this transition by generating significant transaction fee revenue. In some blocks, transaction fees already exceed the block reward, especially during periods of high Ordinals/Runes activity.
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, popularized by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB, has been one of the most discussed frameworks for analyzing Bitcoin's value in relation to halvings.
Stock-to-flow is a ratio that measures scarcity. The "stock" is the existing supply of an asset (how much exists), and the "flow" is the annual production (how much is added each year). A higher S2F ratio means the asset is scarcer relative to its production rate.
| Asset | Stock-to-Flow Ratio | Annual Supply Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~60 | ~1.7% |
| Silver | ~22 | ~4.5% |
| Bitcoin (2024-2028) | ~120 | ~0.83% |
| Bitcoin (post-2028) | ~240 | ~0.42% |
With a S2F ratio of approximately 120 in the current era, Bitcoin is already twice as "hard" (scarce relative to production) as gold. After the next halving, this ratio will double again to approximately 240.
PlanB's original S2F model correlated Bitcoin's S2F ratio with its market capitalization, producing a logarithmic regression that predicted steadily increasing prices with each halving. The model gained massive popularity because it correctly anticipated the magnitude of the 2020-2021 bull run (broadly).
The S2F model has significant limitations and has drawn criticism:
The S2F model is best understood as a useful framework for thinking about supply dynamics rather than a precise price prediction tool. The core insight — that predictable, decreasing supply combined with growing demand tends to increase price — remains valid even if the specific model has limitations.
Understanding the halving cycle can inform your Bitcoin investment strategy, though it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.
The most risk-managed approach is consistent DCA regardless of where we are in the halving cycle. If you invest a fixed amount weekly or monthly, you will naturally buy more during the cheaper accumulation phases and less during the expensive euphoric phases. This removes the need to time the market perfectly and has historically produced strong results over full halving cycles.
More active investors may increase their DCA amount during bear market phases (18-36 months after the previous cycle's peak) and decrease or pause during euphoric phases. The key is recognizing that the best buying opportunities historically occur during the periods of maximum negativity and capitulation — precisely when it feels most uncomfortable to buy.
Beyond holding BTC itself, the Bitcoin ecosystem now includes Ordinals (NFTs), Runes (fungible tokens), and applications built on Bitcoin. Platforms like SPUNK.BET let you participate in this ecosystem for free — claim daily SPUNK*BET tokens, play games, and win Ordinals prizes. Engaging with the ecosystem deepens your understanding and gives you exposure to Bitcoin's growing utility beyond simple price appreciation.
The next (fifth) Bitcoin halving is expected around March-April 2028, at block 1,050,000. The exact date depends on the average block time between now and then. The block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. You can track the countdown on sites like bitcoinblockhalf.com.
No. While every previous halving has been followed by a significant price increase (ranging from 700% to 9,500%), past performance does not guarantee future results. The halving reduces supply, which is bullish, but price also depends on demand, macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and market sentiment. The halving creates favorable conditions for price appreciation but does not guarantee it.
The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140. After that, miners will be compensated entirely through transaction fees rather than block rewards. This transition will happen gradually over more than a century, giving the network ample time to develop a sustainable fee-based security model. The growing Ordinals and Runes ecosystem already generates significant transaction fee revenue, demonstrating that fee-based miner compensation is viable.
Technically, the Bitcoin software is open source and could be modified to change the supply cap. However, doing so would require convincing the vast majority of Bitcoin node operators, miners, exchanges, and users to adopt the change. Since the 21 million cap is the foundational value proposition of Bitcoin (digital scarcity), there is virtually zero chance of this happening. Any attempt to change the supply cap would likely result in a chain split, with the original 21 million cap version retaining the "Bitcoin" name and value.
Historically, buying before the halving has produced better returns because the price tends to rise both in anticipation of the halving and after it. However, timing the market perfectly is difficult. The best approach for most people is consistent dollar-cost averaging (DCA) regardless of timing. If you are not ready to buy, you can still participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem for free through platforms like SPUNK.BET, which distributes 10,000 free SPUNK*BET Runes tokens daily.
The halving does not directly change how Runes or Ordinals work — they continue to function the same regardless of the block reward. However, halvings indirectly benefit these ecosystems because they increase Bitcoin's scarcity and price, which tends to bring more attention, users, and capital to all Bitcoin-based protocols. The most recent halving in 2024 coincided with the launch of the Runes protocol, demonstrating the synergy between Bitcoin's monetary events and its expanding ecosystem.